*Matchups are followed by the latest line available at time of article*
Thanksgiving Day
Green Bay (10-0) at Detroit (7-3), GB by 7 – If the Packers win this game, they have a really legitimate shot at running the table assuming they stay healthy. Given all the years of Turkey Day frustration and the lack of urgency on the side of the Pack, who will probably coast to the #1 seed in the NFC with or without this game, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Lions get this one done in front of their fans at Ford Field. I like the Lions to not only cover here, but win.
Dolphins (3-7) at Cowboys (6-4), DAL by 7 – Miami has been as hot as any team the last few weeks, and in the right circumstances they might be able to catch a team like Dallas getting overconfident and make them pay for it in a game like this. Unfortunately, I don’t see Dallas falling prey to a trap game after just barely getting out of Washington in an OT victory, especially in a Thanksgiving game, so expect Miami to fall back to bottom-feeder status this week. Give me Dallas, spread and all.
49ers (9-1) at Ravens (7-3), BAL by 3 – This has been hyped as the game of the week ever since Tom Brady stepped off the field on Monday night, and rightly so. Both these teams look like legitimate contenders coming into the home stretch of the NFL season, and the way that the Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh, Brother-on-Brother match-up on Thanksgiving has unfolded, with both teams clearly in the playoff picture, creates a script so good it would make Vince McMahon jealous. This has all the makings of a great game, but the Niners, despite their stellar record, have not played the toughest schedule and do not seem like a team ready to make waves in the playoffs yet. They also have to travel three time zones East on a short week, something that has historically gone poorly for a visiting team. Expect the Ravens to win this one, but if the Niners somehow pull it off, it will no longer be possible to discount them in the Super Bowl discussion. But I like the Ravens here, with the spread.
Sunday
Redskins (3-7) at Seahawks (4-6), SEA by 4 – Really, I’m not even mad with this Skins team. Not at all. To tell you the truth, Grossman is playing about as well as you could hope given the injuries suffered at running back, receiver and the O-line. While I wasn’t expecting what has essentially become an extended training camp throughout the regular season, as the Shanahans continue to start players one week, cut them the next, and just generally foster a chaotic depth chart, the decision to use Roy Helu sparingly is, in my mind, a good one. We have nothing left to play for this year, and while it’s important to see what we have now so we can make good decisions this off-season, it’s even more important that we don’t overload our young skill position talent when there’s poor blocking and nothing to play for. I’m still giving Shanahan the benefit of the doubt, though I say it a little more hesitantly than I did in June. I like many things that I have seen, and while every team has had their share of injuries, the Skins found themselves quickly and significantly depleted. To entertain notions of the postseason this year was unwarranted, but Allen and Shanahan asked for three years to get this thing turned around from day one, and I’m the kind of fan that likes to see a guy get the timeline he was hired under pretenses of. As for this year though? Pretty much a lost cause. Plus the ‘Hawks have that artifically noise-enhanced stadium of theirs that seems to give everyone so much trouble, especially us. I think they win, but the die-hard in me says we’ll somehow cover a spread of 4, so give me the Skins.
Buccaneers (4-6) at Titans (5-5), TEN by 4 – This is a tough call here, and it’s made even tougher by the fact that we have yet to see what Jake Locker can really do. I expect the Bucs to try to focus on not letting Chris Johnson beat them, so the passing lanes should be there. But I also expect LeGarrette Blount to get it going again this week, and Freeman is a little more ideal a bet than an unproven rookie. I’ll go with the Bucs on this one.
Vikings (2-8) at Falcons (6-4), ATL by 10 – This seems like as close to a lock as there is this week. I’ll go with the Falcons, despite the spread, as with Adrian Peterson out, all the pressure will fall on rookie QB Christian Ponder to beat a better-than-you-think Falcons D, and I don’t see him as being able to put a team on his back like that, at least not yet.
Browns (4-6) at Bengals (6-4), CIN by 8 - Just like it has all season, this Cinci team will live or die with Ginger-haired Andy Dalton, and since he and A.J. Green look set to go this week, and Peyton Hillis still can’t get back on the field, I’ll take the Bengals.
Panthers (2-8) at Colts (0-10), CAR by 4 – Wow, battle of a couple real bottom-feeders here. The thing is, I have seen absolutely nothing from the Colts that make me think they can win a single game this year, Orlovsky’s looking like he might get the start this week, and the Newton-led Panthers, despite their record, have played a lot of good teams very close. Panthers should take care of business in this one.
Cardinals (3-7) at Rams (2-8), Even – Now that Bradford’s back, I keep waiting on the Rams, who were my preseason pick to win the division, to get their game on track. If Kevin Kolb can’t go again, and John Skelton or Richard Bartel suits up, I can’t imagine how the Rams fail to get it done at home. Give me St. Louis.
Bills (5-5) at Jets (5-5), NYJ by 8 – Everything that this Jets team has built and all the hype surrounding them is unraveling right before our eyes, and nothing is better medicine for a pissed-off AFC East team with this type of talent on the roster than a home game against the Bills, who just lost Fred Jackson for the year and whose fast start has unraveled even more thoroughly. Jets win this one, spread and all.
Texans (7-3) at Jaguars (3-7), HOU by 4 – This SHOULD be Houston’s game to lose. The X-factor is of course Matt Leinert, who no one has seen in a game situation for quite a while, and with good reason. I have almost no confidence in Leinert until he shows something, but I like what I’ve seen from Gabbert and the Jags offense even less. Plus, the Texans still have a stable of three great running backs at their disposal. I say the Texans win and cover.
Bears (7-3) at Raiders (6-4), OAK by 4 – Tough call here, though the loss of Jay Cutler is a hurdle that I don’t know this Bears team is ready to handle. Caleb Hanie for the most part looked absolutely atrocious when he got his chances last year, and Carson Palmer has this Raiders team looking quite revitalized. Give me Oakland here.
Patriots (7-3) at Eagles (4-6), NE by 3 – Tough call here. To be honest, a lot of this call has to do with whether or not Mike Vick suits up, as I don’t believe Vince Young will be able to lead the Eggles to success against a team as savvy as the Pats. In fact, given what I’ve seen from both teams so far, I’m not sure that Vick could get the job done even if he does suit up. I’ll take the Pats to win and cover.
Broncos (5-5) at Chargers (4-6), SD by 6 – Tough call here, but the Chargers have looked VERY inconsistent and continue to fall apart in 4th quarters. Ironically enough, the 4th quarter may as well just be officially re-named Tebow Time the way Tim and the Broncs have stormed back on teams to end games. I’m not betting against it here. I’ll take the Broncos to definitely cover, and maybe even pull out the win, sending Denver into a suddenly playoff-hopeful frenzy
Steelers (7-3) at Chiefs (4-6), PIT by 11 – Tyler Palko looked so horrifically bad on Monday that even though they have nothing to play for this year, the CHiefs were willing to eat 2.5 million bucks to lock up Kyle Orton off of waivers for the rest of this year and beyond, and he’s probably the best option they have. No matter who is under center for KC on Sunday, I don’t expect them to be able to do anything against the Steelers, who, as per usual are looking to pick up speed here in the home stretch of the year. Pittsburgh should win, and win big.
Monday
Giants (6-4) at Saints (7-3), NO by 7 – Finally! We have been waiting literally ALL YEAR for a quality Monday night match-up (Thank you, NFL, for giving the national audience alternating games between the pathetic, Manning-less Colts and the pathetic, Sanchez-full Jets all year long), and we really should get one this week when the G-men visit the Saints at the Superdome. Both of these teams have played at very high levels this year, and both have underperformed at times, but the key to me here is whether or not Ahmad Bradshaw suits up. If he does, the Giants have a real chance of leaving N’awlins with a ‘W’. If not, well it may be a long night, as Jacobs hasn’t exactly been running well, and everyone behind him is unproven. Eli can still put up points, but Brees can match him score for score, and the three-headed monster that the Saints have going in Ingram/Sproles/Pierre Thomas, now that all three are finally healthy and ready to roll should prove too much for the Giants to handle for 4 full quarters. I expect the Saints to win, but if Bradshaw does play, I think the Giants probably cover the spread.
