KBZ’s Predictions for Week 13

So, just to recap.  Last week was my first week making a serious attempt at spread predictions, and it turned out relatively well, 9-6-1, with the Falcons/Vikings game being a push.  The Lions were a big disappointment, but by and large a pretty solid first try.  Here’s what I got for the NFL week ahead:

NFL Week 13 Predictions (9-6-1 to date), Wednesday’s SportsLine

Thursday

It's been a long time in the process, but Vince Young seems to have his head right and Vinceanity is running wild!

Philadelphia (4-7) at Seattle (4-7), PHI by 3 – These are two 4-7 teams that really could not be less alike.  The Seattle Buzzards have played above their talent level for most if not all of their wins, and Philly at this point really can’t be considered anything but a total disappointment given the plethora of off-season acquisitions and talent they boast.  Despite this, the Eggles are a deep and talented team, one that can hang with anyone when they can put it all together.  Vince Young has looked solid enough at quarterback, and should be fine if Philly decides to continue to rest Vick, as seems to be expected.  Young can likely outshine a less than stellar starting QB opposing him in Tarvaris Jackson, whose game reminds me a little of a watered-down version of Young himself.  Tarvaris’s life is not made any easier by the fact that he also just lost his only reliable weapon, Sidney Rice, probably for the year.  Philadelphia wins this game, with spread.

Sunday

NY Jets (6-5) at Washington (4-7), NYJ by 3 – Blah.  Took my Skins on a hunch last week and they made me look good, but the Jets are too talented for me to want to let it ride.

Tennessee (6-5) at Buffalo (5-6), BUF by 3 – The Bills are trending due South, having been on a losing tear after starting the seasson red-hot, and the Titans are the opposite story after a couple big wins.  Give me the team that’s winning now.

Kansas City (4-7) at Chicago (7-4), CHI by 7 – As bad as the Chiefs have looked, I actually believe that they’ll start to look better each week going forward now that they have Kyle Orton at the helm.  Conversely, I didn’t see anything last week from new Bears QB Caleb Hanie to inspire confidence.  Pretty big spread, so I’ll take KC.

Oakland (7-4) at Miami (3-8), MIA by 3 – Little surprised by this spread to be honest.  I mean, I know they’re hot and playing at home, coming off three wins and a close lose at Dallas on Thanksgiving, but Miami really should not be favored here.  Oakland still isn’t getting enough respect; they have been playing really well and knocking off some good teams in the process.  If anything I’d expect this game to be even money.  Since it is not, I’ll take the Raiders.

Denver (6-5) at Minnesota (2-9), MIN by 1 – Stop betting against Tebow.  It doesn’t pay long-term.  Said it last week, still applies now as much as ever.

Indianapolis (0-11) at New England (8-3), NE by 21 – As big a spread as three full touchdowns is, I’m still not convinced Brady, Belichick & Co. won’t try to run up the score as much as possible against the hapless Colts just to rub their noses in the fact that they really are that bad without Peyton, and the rivalry that the two teams have had for years is thoroughly decided.  Give me the Pats despite it.

Cincinnati (7-4) at Pittsburgh (8-3), PIT by 7 – This is a good spread, and a really tough call.  To be honest, I still don’t ever know what to do with the Bengals and Andy Dalton.  I keep expecting failure, and Dalton and fellow rookie WR A.J. Green continue to drastically overachieve.  However, the Steelers have been winning (except against the Ravens), and have some experience with the level of toughness needed for these AFC North division games, so I’ll take Pittsburgh.

Carolina (3-8) at Tampa Bay (4-7), TB by 3 – Josh Freeman just keeps looking worse and worse, while Cam Newton looks better and better.  However, LeGarrette Blount looks just fine, and the Panthers haven’t managed to stop the run all year.  Bucs should win this one and cover.

Atlanta (7-4) at Houston (8-3), ATL by 3 – T.J. Yates starting at QB for a Texans team that likely is playoff bound despite itself?  Who?  Exactly.  Wait, what’s that?  It’s the sound of Defensive Coordinators of playoff-bound AFC teams salivating at the prospect of getting Houston in the first round.  Atlanta, please.

Baltimore (8-3) at Cleveland (4-7), BAL by 7 – Browns RB Peyton Hillis made his much anticipated return last week, but his game seemed to take an extra week off.  I wouldn’t expect him or the Browns to change their losing ways against the Ravens, though they have had a propensity for dropping the easy game this year.  I’ll take the Ravens here.

Green Bay (11-0) at NY Giants (6-5), GB by 8 – Have to take the Packers with a spread of only 8 after what Drew Brees just did to this defense.  If Osi doesn’t play, as is expected, Aaron Rodgers could hit triple digits.

Dallas (7-4) at Arizona (4-7), DAL by 5 – Dallas.  Remember the days when the Cards were in the same division as the Skins, Giants, ‘Boys and Eagles and all of us got two free wins each year?  Sigh.

St. Louis (2-9) at San Francisco (9-2), SF by 14 – I think the Niners are a virtual lock to win this game, but by how much is the real question.  Given the fact that the match-up is divisional, the Rams continue to get healthier and the Niners offense seemed to show signs of sputtering last week, I’ll take the Rams with that spread.

Sunday Night

Detroit (7-4) at New Orleans (8-3), NO by 9 – Thought about this one for a little bit.  Then re-realized that Suh won’t be playing.  Saints -9 looks a lot more attractive suddenly.

Monday Night

San Diego (4-7) at Jacksonville (3-8), SD by 3 – Wow, have both these teams been bad.  Also, is it just me or by and larger have the primetime games been terrible too?  Guess that’s what happens when a league is so committed to parity that when it makes the schedule it has no clue if the team it’s assigning 6 Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights games to playoff bound or going to wind up 2-14.  But I digress.  I’ll take the Chargers.  Both teams are a hot mess, but Jacksonville is the hotter mess right now, having just cleaned house and fired the coach and staff, while San Diego is keeping it classy and waiting until the off-season to oust ol’ Norv and crew.  Plus, Rivers and friends have to get it going eventually right?  Right?  Right???

 

-KBZ

KBZ’s NFL Power Rankings: Week 13

Sources/Basis from my rankings come from a weekly rankings spreadsheet I have maintained the past couple of years, which can be found here: nflteampowerranks2011.

Week 13 Rankings

Clay Matthews and the unbeaten Green Bay Packers sit atop the NFL world for yet another week.

1. Green Bay Packers: 11-0 (Last Week: 1) It’s really starting to look like they may never lose again.

2. New England Patriots: 8-3 (Last Week: 3) Brady and the offense are clicking; teams are being forced to pick their poison between stopping Gronkowski and stopping Welker, and the D makes the plays when it needs to, as Belichick defenses seem to have an uncanny ability to do.

3. New Orleans Saints: 8-3 (Last Week: 5) The dismantling of the Giants last night at the hands of Drew Brees was a reminder of just how legitimate a Super Bowl contender this team really is.

4. Baltimore Ravens: 8-3 (Last Week: 6) A solid Thanksgiving performance against another strong team.  The Ravens show all the signs of a team poised to go deep into the playoffs, but the offense still seems to be capable of showing great inconsistency.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-3 (Last Week: 7) This team isn’t missing a beat despite its terrible offensive line.  They’ve only lost three times, twice to the Ravens, and they continue to look like a sure bet for the postseason.

6. San Francisco 49ers: 9-2 (Last Week: 2) Just when I decide to give the Niners their due and put them at #2, where their record would indicate they belong, they go and validate all my doubts by failing to get anything going on offense against what is really one of the only legitimately strong teams they have faced this year.  Jim Harbaugh has this bunch playing with chips on their shoulders, but until I see them beat some good teams and not just the bottom-feeders in the NFC West, I can’t see them as anything more than a one-and-done in the playoffs.

7. Atlanta Falcons: 7-4 (Last Week: 9) Starting to peak at just the right time, and, to be honest, this is a group that, given their defeat at home with the #1 seed in last year’s postseason, is probably perfectly content to glide into the playoffs under the radar.

8. Houston Texans: 8-3 (Last Week: 4) Yeah, this team was probably rated too high last week.  However, they were definitely too high after this week, where they managed to hold out against the Jags despite losing quarterback #2 Matt Leinert and being forced to turn to no-name rookie T.J. Yates.  This team is probably too far along in too weak a division to not make the playoffs, but I have serious doubts that even a running game as good as this one can hold up this passing attack for long.

9. Dallas Cowboys: 7-4 (Last Week: 11) Survived a tough Thanksgiving matchup against an inspired Miami team.  With the Saints destruction of the Giants on Monday night, the NFC East suddenly looks like theirs to lose.

10. Cincinnati Bengals: 7-4 (Last Week: 13) Time to start giving Cinci their due; despite all reasoning and sensibility to the contrary, Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are absolutely on fire, the defense is solid as one could hope for, and the Bengals look more and more the part of a playoff team each week.

11. Oakland Raiders: 7-4 (Last Week: 12) This is a hot, hot ballclub right now, and the scariest part is that they have been doing it all without Darren McFadden.

12. Detroit Lions: 7-4 (Last Week: 10) A disgraceful penalty from Ndamukong Suh turned a close, hard-fought loss into an embarrassing one.  With Suh suspended for two games, the Lions are going to have to fight to keep the long-anticipated playoff hopes of the Detroit faithful alive until his return, despite an offense that is beginning to sputter and a defense that was already over-matched everywhere but with the pass rush.

13. Denver Broncos: 6-5 (Last Week: 14) Anyone who still doesn’t believe that Tim Tebow can’t win in this league, under the right system, surrounded by the right people, given the right circumstances, is living in denial.  Period.  How scary-good will this kid be if he ever learns to pass with real consistency?  How scary-good will he be once he finally plays a whole game the way he plays the game’s final drive?

14. New York Jets: 6-5 (Last Week: 15) This is still a dangerous team loaded with talent that has a real dark horse shot at the postseason even still.  However, the room for error has vanished, and it’s put-up-or-shut-up time for Rex Ryan’s would-be perennial Super Bowl champions.

15. Tennessee Titans: 6-5 (Last Week: 17) There’s the Chris Johnson we’ve been waiting for all year!  Still, how much of the success on the ground had to do with Munchak calling out his offensive line and Johnson stepping up to the plate, and how much had to do with the Bucs’ 31-st ranked run D?

16. New York Giants: 6-5 (Last Week: 16) Drew Brees showed why he is Drew Brees last night, but he also showed how pillow-soft this once-proud Giants D seems to have become, especially in the secondary.  They still have a real good chance to win the division, but any top quarterback will pick this team apart playing the way they have.  The return of Ahmad Bradshaw should help stabilize the running game, and Eli has certainly been doing everything he can.  Still, it might not be enough, and Tom Coughlin’s job likely rides on this team’s ability to get to the postseason.

17. Chicago Bears: 7-4 (Last Week: 8 ) Caleb Hanie under center looks like he is poised to be the sudden downfall of an organization that is desperately and probably naively clinging to its playoff aspirations.

18. Philadelphia Eagles: 4-7 (Last Week: 18) Vince Young has looked really promising in these last couple starts, and let’s be real; no one REALLY expected them to beat New England anyways.  Playoffs or not, this is still a team that is loaded with talent and can beat most anyone on the days they decide to get disciplined and put it all together.

19. Buffalo Bills: 5-6 (Last Week: 21) I’m wondering if the thought that MAYBE they might have jumped the gun in giving Ryan Ftizpatrick his payday so quickly has crossed the mind of anyone in Buffalo’s front office yet, and, if so, how often.

20. Carolina Panthers: 3-8 (Last Week: 23) As Cam Newton continues to develop, so too will this team’s chances of making a quick resurgence.  Now, if they could only do something about the atrocious defense they’re playing, ranked last in the league.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-7 (Last Week: 22) This run defense is hurting an otherwise stellar secondary, and the receiving corps is absolutely horrendous.  Maybe Raheem Morris is only cut out to coach safeties and corners, after all.

22. Washington Redskins: 4-7 (Last Week: 26) A nice win against a mediocre opponent but with a very shorthanded squad.  The Redskins can hang defensively with most any team on any given day, and look like they could, as Shanahan had originally predicted, be a potential playoff contender for next year, assuming they draft well and young talent like Roy Helu, Fred Davis and Leonard Hankerson continue to develop accordingly.

23. San Diego Chargers: 4-7 (Last Week: 20) Philip Rivers has been inconsistent at best all year, and with Norv Turner’s games of back-and-back-and-forth between Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert and Curtis Brinkley, this team looks like it is missing the dynamic element of Darren Sproles something awful.  I expect ol’ Norvy to be out the door by the start of next season.

24. Seattle Seahawks: 4-7 (Last Week: 19) I bet Pete Carroll is starting to miss the days when he could get any recruit he wanted and his USC Trojans dominated the Pac-10.  This team is certainly not overloaded with talent, and the loss of Sidney Rice, maybe for the rest of the year, certainly doesn’t help.

25. Cleveland Browns: 4-7 (Last Week: 25) Now that Peyton Hillis appears to be back for good and the team as a whole is getting healthier, it’s time to see if this Browns team is on the cusp of turning a corner going into next year, or still in the early stages of a long rebuilding process.

26. Miami Dolphins: 3-8 (Last Week: 24) Brought back down to earth some after that tough loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.  Still, that gutsy performance coupled with the three-game winning streak that proceded may have just been enough to save Tony Sparano’s job for another year.

27. Kansas City Chiefs: 4-7 (Last Week: 30) They’re playing about as well as one could hope given all the key players they’ve lost, and Tamba Hali is playing absolutely out of his mind on the defensive side.  The insertion of Kyle Orton into the lineup can only keep things moving in a positive direction.

28. Arizona Cardinals: 4-7 (Last Week: 27) Neither John Skelton nor Richard Bartel have any business starting games in the NFL.  Cardinals fans just have to praythat, when he finally returns from injury, the same can’t be said for Kevin Kolb.

29. Minnesota Vikings: 2-9 (Last Week: 28) Remember when the biggest problem this team had was whether or not Brett Favre was going to come back and be the difference on their squad between a playoff contender and a Super Bowl contender?  Doesn’t seem so long ago.  Think Vikings fans miss the Brett Favre saga yet, obnoxious as it was?  Me too.

30. St. Louis Rams: 2-9 (Last Week: 29) This team looks an absolute mess right now.  Steven Jackson can’t get it going, Sam Bradford can’t do it all by himself with no one but Brandon Lloyd to throw to, and the team’s saving grace in its big 2nd win on Sunday was its kick return touchdown from a no-name guy who didn’t even have a job last week.  No thanks.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-8 (Last Week: 31) So, let’s recap: the team’s falling apart, the owner is taking phone calls from anyone with a legitimate interest in buying his captain’s chair on this sinking ship, the head coach was fired this morning, and to top it all off, the GM who put this would-be reality show slopfest together was just resigned today to a new three-year deal.  Anyone want a piece of this pie?

32. Indianapolis Colts: 0-11 (Last Week: 32) They truly are god-awful, but it still irks me, as it should everyone else, that they are going to get such a sweet prize as Andrew Luck for all their troubles of tanking it the year Peyton Manning sat out.  It’s performances like the ones the Colts have been putting up that make me understand why the NBA does a lottery.

KBZ’s Predictions for Week 12

*Matchups are followed by the latest line available at time of article*

Thanksgiving Day

Green Bay (10-0) at Detroit (7-3), GB by 7 – If the Packers win this game, they have a really legitimate shot at running the table assuming they stay healthy.  Given all the years of Turkey Day frustration and the lack of urgency on the side of the Pack, who will probably coast to the #1 seed in the NFC with or without this game, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Lions get this one done in front of their fans at Ford Field.  I like the Lions to not only cover here, but win.

Dolphins (3-7) at Cowboys (6-4), DAL by 7 – Miami has been as hot as any team the last few weeks, and in the right circumstances they might be able to catch a team like Dallas getting overconfident and make them pay for it in a game like this.  Unfortunately, I don’t see Dallas falling prey to a trap game after just barely getting out of Washington in an OT victory, especially in a Thanksgiving game, so expect Miami to fall back to bottom-feeder status this week.  Give me Dallas, spread and all.

49ers (9-1) at Ravens (7-3), BAL by 3 – This has been hyped as the game of the week ever since Tom Brady stepped off the field on Monday night, and rightly so.  Both these teams look like legitimate contenders coming into the home stretch of the NFL season, and the way that the Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh, Brother-on-Brother match-up on Thanksgiving has unfolded, with both teams clearly in the playoff picture, creates a script so good it would make Vince McMahon jealous.  This has all the makings of a great game, but the Niners, despite their stellar record, have not played the toughest schedule and do not seem like a team ready to make waves in the playoffs yet.  They also have to travel three time zones East on a short week, something that has historically gone poorly for a visiting team.  Expect the Ravens to win this one, but if the Niners somehow pull it off, it will no longer be possible to discount them in the Super Bowl discussion.  But I like the Ravens here, with the spread.

Sunday

Redskins (3-7) at Seahawks (4-6), SEA by 4 – Really, I’m not even mad with this Skins team.  Not at all.  To tell you the truth, Grossman is playing about as well as you could hope given the injuries suffered at running back, receiver and the O-line.  While I wasn’t expecting what has essentially become an extended training camp throughout the regular season, as the Shanahans continue to start players one week, cut them the next, and just generally foster a chaotic depth chart, the decision to use Roy Helu sparingly is, in my mind, a good one.  We have nothing left to play for this year, and while it’s important to see what we have now so we can make good decisions this off-season, it’s even more important that we don’t overload our young skill position talent when there’s poor blocking and nothing to play for.  I’m still giving Shanahan the benefit of the doubt, though I say it a little more hesitantly than I did in June.  I like many things that I have seen, and while every team has had their share of injuries, the Skins found themselves quickly and significantly depleted.  To entertain notions of the postseason this year was unwarranted, but Allen and Shanahan asked for three years to get this thing turned around from day one, and I’m the kind of fan that likes to see a guy get the timeline he was hired under pretenses of.  As for this year though?  Pretty much a lost cause.  Plus the ‘Hawks have that artifically noise-enhanced stadium of theirs that seems to give everyone so much trouble, especially us.  I think they win, but the die-hard in me says we’ll somehow cover a spread of 4, so give me the Skins.

Buccaneers (4-6) at Titans (5-5), TEN by 4 – This is a tough call here, and it’s made even tougher by the fact that we have yet to see what Jake Locker can really do.  I expect the Bucs to try to focus on not letting Chris Johnson beat them, so the passing lanes should be there.  But I also expect LeGarrette Blount to get it going again this week, and Freeman is a little more ideal a bet than an unproven rookie.  I’ll go with the Bucs on this one.

Vikings (2-8) at Falcons (6-4), ATL by 10 – This seems like as close to a lock as there is this week.  I’ll go with the Falcons, despite the spread, as with Adrian Peterson out, all the pressure will fall on rookie QB Christian Ponder to beat a better-than-you-think Falcons D, and I don’t see him as being able to put a team on his back like that, at least not yet.

Browns (4-6) at Bengals (6-4), CIN by 8 - Just like it has all season, this Cinci team will live or die with Ginger-haired Andy Dalton, and since he and A.J. Green look set to go this week, and Peyton Hillis still can’t get back on the field, I’ll take the Bengals.

Panthers (2-8) at Colts (0-10), CAR by 4 – Wow, battle of a couple real bottom-feeders here.  The thing is, I have seen absolutely nothing from the Colts that make me think they can win a single game this year, Orlovsky’s looking like he might get the start this week, and the Newton-led Panthers, despite their record, have played a lot of good teams very close.  Panthers should take care of business in this one.

Cardinals (3-7) at Rams (2-8), Even – Now that Bradford’s back, I keep waiting on the Rams, who were my preseason pick to win the division, to get their game on track.  If Kevin Kolb can’t go again, and John Skelton or Richard Bartel suits up, I can’t imagine how the Rams fail to get it done at home.  Give me St. Louis.

Bills (5-5) at Jets (5-5), NYJ by 8 – Everything that this Jets team has built and all the hype surrounding them is unraveling right before our eyes, and nothing is better medicine for a pissed-off AFC East team with this type of talent on the roster than a home game against the Bills, who just lost Fred Jackson for the year and whose fast start has unraveled even more thoroughly.  Jets win this one, spread and all.

Texans (7-3) at Jaguars (3-7), HOU by 4 – This SHOULD be Houston’s game to lose.  The X-factor is of course Matt Leinert, who no one has seen in a game situation for quite a while, and with good reason.  I have almost no confidence in Leinert until he shows something, but I like what I’ve seen from Gabbert and the Jags offense even less.  Plus, the Texans still have a stable of three great running backs at their disposal.  I say the Texans win and cover.

Bears (7-3) at Raiders (6-4), OAK by 4 – Tough call here, though the loss of Jay Cutler is a hurdle that I don’t know this Bears team is ready to handle.  Caleb Hanie for the most part looked absolutely atrocious when he got his chances last year, and Carson Palmer has this Raiders team looking quite revitalized.  Give me Oakland here.

Patriots (7-3) at Eagles (4-6), NE by 3 – Tough call here.  To be honest, a lot of this call has to do with whether or not Mike Vick suits up, as I don’t believe Vince Young will be able to lead the Eggles to success against a team as savvy as the Pats.  In fact, given what I’ve seen from both teams so far, I’m not sure that Vick could get the job done even if he does suit up.  I’ll take the Pats to win and cover.

Broncos (5-5) at Chargers (4-6), SD by 6 – Tough call here, but the Chargers have looked VERY inconsistent and continue to fall apart in 4th quarters.  Ironically enough, the 4th quarter may as well just be officially re-named Tebow Time the way Tim and the Broncs have stormed back on teams to end games.  I’m not betting against it here.  I’ll take the Broncos to definitely cover, and maybe even pull out the win, sending Denver into a suddenly playoff-hopeful frenzy

Steelers (7-3) at Chiefs (4-6), PIT by 11 – Tyler Palko looked so horrifically bad on Monday that even though they have nothing to play for this year, the CHiefs were willing to eat 2.5 million bucks to lock up Kyle Orton off of waivers for the rest of this year and beyond, and he’s probably the best option they have.  No matter who is under center for KC on Sunday, I don’t expect them to be able to do anything against the Steelers, who, as per usual are looking to pick up speed here in the home stretch of the year.  Pittsburgh should win, and win big.

Monday

Giants (6-4) at Saints (7-3), NO by 7 – Finally!  We have been waiting literally ALL YEAR for a quality Monday night match-up (Thank you, NFL, for giving the national audience alternating games between the pathetic, Manning-less Colts and the pathetic, Sanchez-full Jets all year long), and we really should get one this week when the G-men visit the Saints at the Superdome.  Both of these teams have played at very high levels this year, and both have underperformed at times, but the key to me here is whether or not Ahmad Bradshaw suits up.  If he does, the Giants have a real chance of leaving N’awlins with a ‘W’.  If not, well it may be a long night, as Jacobs hasn’t exactly been running well, and everyone behind him is unproven.  Eli can still put up points, but Brees can match him score for score, and the three-headed monster that the Saints have going in Ingram/Sproles/Pierre Thomas, now that all three are finally healthy and ready to roll should prove too much for the Giants to handle for 4 full quarters.  I expect the Saints to win, but if Bradshaw does play, I think the Giants probably cover the spread.

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KBZ’s NFL Power Rankings: Week 12

So this is a rankings system I started keeping since Week 2 of 2010, but pre-Week 12 of 2011 is the first week it’s being published.  It’s as consistent and accurate as I am, which is a standard I’d much rather set than have to try to meet…nflteampowerranks2011

The Rundown (Last Week’s Ranking in Parenthesis)

1. Green Bay Packers (1): If you want to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best, and no one’s done it yet.

2. San Francisco 49ers (3): Time to really start giving them their due; Harbaugh has this team playing inspired football, but a Thanksgiving matchup in Baltimore looms large.

3. New England Patriots (5): When they’re firing on all cylinders, they are really tough to stop, and their schedule only gets easier from here.

4. Houston Texans (2): Probably a little inflated, especially now that it’s confirmed that Schaub is done for the year, yet it won’t matter if they can keep running the ball the way they have.  The big question: can Matt Leinert keep this ship afloat?

5. New Orleans Saints (4): Still look capable of beating any team on any day, but have not looked quite as consistent as in recent years.

6. Baltimore Ravens (7): A dangerous team that no one wants to see in the playoffs, but it will be a short postseason if they keep taking the ball out of Ray Rice’s hands.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (6): Despite getting swept by Baltimore this season, they have looked like the more consistent team of the two, and it’s awfully tough to beat them three times in a year.

8. Chicago Bears (8): Granted this ranking was done prior to the announcement that Cutler needs season-ending surgery, but how critical was he, anyways?  With Forte running like he is and the D playing this inspired, Caleb Hanie could be a household name before too long.

9. Atlanta Falcons (9): A talented ballclub that still has yet to really showcase their full potential.  In many ways the Ravens of the NFC.

10. Detroit Lions (10): This is an incredibly potent offense, but the D allowing Cam Newton & Co. to put up 35 on them this past week was NOT an encouraging sign for a team with legitimate playoff aspirations.

11. Dallas Cowboys (14): They suddenly find themselves atop a much-weaker-than-usual NFC East, and they won’t be caught in a trap game anytime soon after that scare at Washington.

12. Oakland Raiders (16): Well, well, well!  Insert Carson Palmer, and suddenly you have a funky, undisciplined bunch that’s playing inspired football even without Run-DMC.  The division is wide open, and when McFadden does return, all bets are off as to how good this team can really be.

13. Cincinnati Bengals (12): Even when this young squad loses, they continue to play high-caliber football above and beyond everyone’s expectations.  Time to give the Red Rocket, aka the Ginger Sensation Andy Dalton his due.

14. Denver Broncos (19): I’m officially a believer.  Throw all your stat sheets out the window, and bet against Tim Tebow at your own peril.  As for me, I’ve learned my lesson.

15. New York Jets (11): I’ll be perfectly honest with you.  I have no idea what to make of this squad right now, but I sure as hell can’t consider them elite anymore.

16. New York Giants (13): Just when it looks like maybe they have barely enough talent to scrape by in a surprisingly soft division, the Eagles show them why offseason acquisitions matter.

17. Tennessee Titans (15): And so the Jake Locker era begins…or does it?  The potential saving grace of this team is their buttery-soft division, which now, along with the rookie Locker, boasts such talent at the QB position as Blaine Gabbert, Dan Orlovsky and Matt Leinert.  ZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

18. Philadelphia Eagles (22): Just when you get set to write them off, they pick up a clutch win and move to 3-1 in the division.  They’ve been undisciplined and underachieved maybe like no team in recent memory, but don’t write them off yet.

19. Seattle Seahawks (23): This is suddenly a team with some life that faces the ‘Skins at home this week.  However unlikely, the Cutler injury and Stafford’s inconsistency may just create a little wiggle room that could allow the ‘Hawks, of all teams to sneak back into the playoff picture.

20. San Diego Chargers (18): They look an absolute mess right now,  and as wide-open as their division is, they can’t possibly hope to win it playing as inconsistently as they have been.

21. Buffalo Bills (17): Just when Bills fans thought that THIS year might truly, actually, really, FINALLY be the year they turn things around….

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20): It’s looking more and more like their outstanding 10-6 record last year had more to do with their cupcake schedule than anything else.

23. Carolina Panthers (24): Well, THAT was interesting!  Superfly Cam Newton has revitalized this suddenly high-octane offense, and this could be a VERY dangerous team in the years to come as he improves on what is already an elite NFL-ready game.

24. Miami Dolphins (25): Has there been a hotter 3-7 team in the history of the NFL?

25. Cleveland Brown (29): A nice win against Jacksonville; unfortunately the key word in that sentence isn’t “win,” it’s “Jacksonville.”

26. Washington Redskins (30): Almost pulled out a very short-handed miracle against a superior Cowboys team.  The revolving doors at the skill positions seem to inspire high level of competition at some times, and complete and utter chaos and confusion at others.

27. Arizona Cardinals (21): Patrick Peterson is the real deal, and looks like he could be great in this league for many years to come.  The same cannot be said of Richard Bartel, nor John Skelton.

28.  Minnesota Vikings (27): As their rookie QB learns the ropes, the saving grace of this team was their “best in the business running back,” Adrian Peterson.  Adrian, meet high ankle sprain.  Ankle sprain, Peterson.  Vikes fans, it’s OK to start crying now.

29. St. Louis Rams (26): So much for all the preseason hype.  Another embarrassing loss to the Seahawks this past week  and the Rams suddenly have to wonder if their rebuilding process, which had been praised all offseason as setting them up to be a “team ready to turn the corner,” is really taking them in the direction they want to go.

30. Kansas City Chiefs (28): Lose your running back, lose your quarterback, lose your best defensive player….they’re still fighting hard every week, which you have to respect, but at what point does this horribly understaffed club get to ask for a mulligan on the rest of the season?

31. Jacksonville Jaguars (31): Fans of all the other 31 teams are all saying the same thing right now: I knew it!  Thank GOD we didn’t take that chance on Gabbert.  Bet the Jags wish they had pulled the trigger on Tebow when they had the chance now…

32. Indianapolis Colts (32): This is what happens when you have one elite player on either side of the ball and you fill the remaining holes with a bunch of schleps and pray for the best.  Eventually, it catches up to you.  Of course, Indy couldn’t have picked a better year to tank it, with one of the best quarterback prospects in NFL history waiting in the wings.

-KBZ

The Sorry State of the American Sports Fan

“That’s unreal.  It’s just bloody stupid over here, innit mate?”

This was the best conclusion a British college student I met could arrive at after I struggled to explain to him the nature of “fandom” in this country.  I had been having a couple drinks with some guys from Manchester at a solid if unspectacular Baltimore institution: Shucker’s Bar & Restaurant in Fells Point, Baltimore, MD.  Turns out that for all our differing beliefs and understandings of what competetive sports are all about, we were able to see eye-to-eye on at least one thing: People who support a team from an area they’ve never set foot in don’t make any sense.

After all, competitive sports were originally created so that nations and territories could seek to determine who was superior and obtain bragging rights without staining the fields red with the blood of their people.  You know this is true when you hear the grizzly stories of fan-on-fan violence from the more heated rivalries in soccer’s English Premier League, like Man U/Man City or Aston Villa/Birmingham.  You know it’s true when you watch French or English soccer fans, before a game against Germany, string up an effogy of a German player and make a mockery of flaying him and burning him as casually as if they were shopping for groceries.

"They may take our lives, but they'll ne'er take our FANDOM!!!"

The hatred for the cross-town rivals go back for generations and in some cases stem from actual wars, creating an intense and impassioned fan dynamic.  But in this country, by and large, the roots of loyalty are as shallow as could be.  If rabid English soccer fans have the roots of giant redwoods, than Americans have the roots of crabgrass.  Somehow, we as American sports fans lost our way.

Is this how the rest of the world pictures us when it comes to sports?

While it is true that we don’t have the bitter history among states that provinces in England might have, it still doesn’t account for the stupid nature of American fans, who seem to change their loyalty with the breeze.  While we should count ourselves fortunate that we don’t actually have to stand next to such traitors in actual battle, it still makes me cringe every time I meet a Packers fan that has never even come close to setting foot in Wisconsin, a Patriots fan who’s never tasted Clam Chowder, a Steelers fan that’s never had a family member trapped in a mineshaft, a Niners fan without at least 3 gay neighbors, etc. etc.

While I can understand liking certain players on other teams and following their careers with interest, to me there is little to no difference between being a Buffalo resident who decides he’s sick of the Bills being bad and wants to pull for a winner like the Patriots, and a cowardly soldier who feels the tides of battle turning and decides to start selling secrets to the enemy.  The end result may be a little more gruesome, but the thought process behind it is the exact same.

On Sunday, I got into a somewhat spirited debate with a few of my friends over the concept of “fandom” in this country: What it means, what makes someone a “true believer,” how valid person X’s claim to supporting team Y is, yadda yadda yadda.  After much deliberation and some back-and-forth exchanges that seemed impassioned enough to come to blows more than once by a bunch, I have established what I believe to be the only three logical and therefore accepted reasons that a person can have for cheering for a specific team:

1.  Born & Raised, aka “The Bushido Code”

No doubt a Redskins fan...

You live by the sword.  You die by the sword.  This is the path for the true homer; attaching oneself to a sports franchise from a young age and sticking with them through thick and thin, odds be damned.   Yes, you may, as I do, find yourself dying a little bit inside each and every time the Redskins fail to convert on 3rd & short with :45 seconds left on the clock, and every season seems like a bigger letdown than the one before it, but that’s sports.  If everyone was supposed to feel like a winner every year, they would give out those cheesy little trophies from the Special Olympics that say “Participant.”  But so what?  The victories are that much sweeter because you know in your heart that you are a true fan, and when your team finally does win a championship, you’ll be close enough to go to the parade and celebrate with them (imagine that, NBD’ers).

2. Got Into the Sport While Living in that City, aka “My First Friend in the Big City was a Team”

This guy looks like he could really use a friend...why not an organization?

The other most commonly accepted fan is the fan who had little to no interest in a sport while growing up, but maybe went away to college or came from a military family or something.  For whatever reason, this fan’s sports and residency background is blurry at best.  As such, it makes sense that, say, a Kentucky resident could go away to California for college and end up being a Niners fan.  College or the equivalent age is often a time that many of us develop a furthered interest in following competitive sports, and if you weren’t following a team until you relocated to a new city, it seems natural that someone would support their new home’s team to help feel a shared sense of identity with those around them.

3. You Were Raised on the Team, aka, “Like Who I Like or Don’t Bother Coming Home for Dinner”

"Because I'm your FATHER, damnit!"

Let’s face it.  There are some intense sports dads out there.  Some of them played one sport or another when they were younger, most of them have difficulty expressing their emotions and use sports on the tube as their main bonding mechanism with their families, and ALL of them seek to mold their offspring into their own image, to ensure that their often narrow-minded views and opinions will endure for yet another generation.  You may not have grown up in the city your dad grew up in, but he’ll be damned if he’s going to let any son of his cheer for anyone but his “NEW YORK FOOTBALLLLL GIANTS,” and it doesn’t matter how many times you tell him that the “football” qualifier hasn’t needed to be included since the 50′s.  Blood is, after all, thicker than water (can we get a medical professional to confirm this?), and the pull of certain families toward a certain franchise can be very, very strong, leaving someone with little to no say in the matter from birth.  In these cases, it’s important for a person to have his/her priorities in order; for instance, what’s more important: your self-expression or your desire to not have your credit card taken away every Sunday?

Now that we have talked about what makes a reasonable, logical, healthy fan, it’s time to take a trip over to the Dark Side and talk about those fans that seem to have forgotten what the hell competitive sports is all about.  You know them before you even really know them by their cheering for every touchdown showed at the bar regardless of who scores it, by the fact that no matter who wins the Super Bowl each year you always seem to know a handful of people who are elated for “their team,” even if you’d bet everything you own that they couldn’t find the city the team calls home on a map.  You know them by the fact that they cheer harder when the local team loses than when whatever team they claim to support wins, by their incredibly defensive demeanor on the subject (because deep down, they know they’re wrong), and just generally by their fickle, flighty approach to sports and life in general.  These people fit overwhelmingly into one of two personality types: fairwather fans and haters, and both are to be equally despised for different reasons.

1. Fairweather fans, aka “92% of Female Sports Fans, and 100% of Ovulating Male Sports Fans)

"Liek OMG! Tom Brady is sooooo sexayyyy! Oh, wait, but who's THAT!? He's cute too, I'm gonna root for him now!"

These people are just the worst of the worst, and the worst part is that they will never understand why other sports fans look down on them.  No matter how the hell a season turns out, they always seem to be totally boosted about the result.  The fairweather fan changes the team he/she supports like the rest of us change socks, only  most of us are more deliberate than that when we change socks so as to not fall while hopping around on one foot.  They will talk about how they have two teams that they love, or in some cases even three or four, completely oblivious to the fact that the true fan bases of all their “teams” want absolutely nothing to do with a “fan” like that.  They are the people who blather on about “Patriots Nation” or “America’s Team,” with the ignorance that can only be demonstrated by someone who actually believes a whole country is behind a single team in a league made up of nothing but teams from within said country.  Their stupidity and remedial logic would even make Sloth from “the Goonies” scratch his head in disbelief.

"Wha? America's team? I thought it was already only America's sport? This is confusing, I need a Baby Ruth."

2. The Hater, aka “I Hate This Place…Who’s their Rival Again?”

"GOD, I hate my life..what would bother my friends/family more; me slitting my wrists or cheering for the team they hate? Hmmmm...."

This is the sports fan most likely to enjoy Emo music.  His/her level of pent-up angst against parents/peers/other external factors has reached a boiling point, and that anger and frustration with the surrounding environment has manifested itself into a die-hard loyalty to whatever team is most hated by those around them.  The most blatant example of this in my area is the plethora of obnoxious Cowboys fans in DC, when you know it’s a rare one of them that could pick out Dallas on a map.  However, there are examples of this “hater’s mentality” in every city with a major sports franchise.  The thing is, while daring to be different and yearning for individuality is usually to be admired, these are just cases of blatant hater-ism.  These people are more excited when the local team loses than when the team they are supposed to like wins, every single time, bar none.  They are so caught up with rejecting the culture that they were raised into that they neglected to realize how little sense it makes for them to like the team they like, yet they continue anyways, looking for every possible opportunity to troll up a local supporter and gloat endlessly at every possible opportunity, so that those around them will be extra-irritated.  It’s a level of gloomy, self-obsessing, angst-ridden behavior that would make even the lead singer of My Chemical Romance envious, and the only solace to be taken away from dealing with these people is the knowledge that when their team actually does win a Championship, these people will have no idea how to find the victory parade, or will at least have to hop on a plane first.  To get a feel for what this fan is all about, you need look no further than this video about the abominable cesspool of human existence known as “the NBD’er.”

NBD: Never Been to Dallas Syndrome

Ideally, American sports could do like the Premiership does; have multiple divisions where the best three of each move up and the worst three of each move down.  This allows for every major city and even the non-major cities to have a team, creates an environment where even the teams at the bottom are playing for incredibly high stakes at the end of the year, and gives everyone in the country a stadium withing traveling distance of their home, helping reinforce the “sports community” concept.  Lord knows teams like the Colts and the Jags, after a season like this one, seem like they could benefit from a year to sharpen their skills in a “Division 2.”  Sadly, this will never happen in America, because it would just be too tough a sell to the unwashed masses.  But hey, a boy can dream.

-KBZ

EDIT: As if in response to my post, I walked outside this morning to see a sketchy-looking dude with gold teeth and a teardrop face tattoo driving around Baltimore with Niners flags hanging rom every side of his car this morning.  Seriously bro?  You look about as much like a San Fran native as I look like a professional wrestler, and if the Niners weren’t suddenly good and playing Baltimore this week I have a hard time believing you’d be doing what you’re doing right now.  Good thing you only need 4 hours and 2 flight changes to catch a “home” game…yuck.

"Whatchu mean I don't look like I was raised in San Fran???"